Dear Fellow Late Night Doomscrollers,
Good news seldom arrives at 11 PM. But last night (it’s now December 9; ignore the November above), a rather good idea arrived. The UK, Japan, and Italy merged their nascent Sixth Generation fighter programs (Tempest and F-X) under the Global Combat Air Program (GCAP). The new jet could enter service in 2035.
I’m not often excited by new concepts in our industry, but this is an exceptional concept, for eight reasons:
1. Harmonized Requirements. The UK and Japan have very similar requirements, based on geography, threats, defense posture, and many other factors. Both want a high speed, fast time-to-climb interceptor with good range, rather than a short/medium-range strike fighter like the F-35. The UK and Japan are two big F-35 customers, but that’s because the former needs them primarily for carrier use, and the latter because they couldn’t get the F-22. The RAF also doesn’t want to compromise its requirements for other European countries, since that would create another Bureaufighter.
2. No Alternatives. The US is busily designing systems that are ideal for a Pacific-centered future: long-range, and very expensive. NGAD’s unit price will be in the “hundreds of millions,” and might not be exported at all. It won’t involve any international partnerships. If the UK and Japan want an affordable interceptor, they’d better create it themselves.
3. Optimized Industry Fit. This is the first time Japan is in an aerospace development partnership where it is actually an equal. The F-2 fighter quickly became a footnote to the F-16 program (around 3% of F-16 output so far) and yielded no important new technologies. All previous Japanese aero partnerships merely involved licensed production of a US system designed by a US producer that viewed Japan as a mere customer. Japan’s hopes for future Boeing jetliner partnerships have proven to be a dead end, thanks to Boeing management’s abandonment of the future.
By contrast, both the UK and Japan will buy around the same number of GCAP jets (~150). BAE Systems and Mitsubishi will be relatively equal partners, and they’re synergistic, too: BAE knows design and integration, Japan knows manufacturing process (and AI, which will come in handy for Collaborative Combat Aircraft). Rolls-Royce knows a lot more about engines than IHI, but Rolls has been badly beaten up over the past decade, so it will need to treat IHI as its equal. Overall, GCAP should be a true 50-50 partnership.
4. Export Prospects. The world combat aircraft market is reaching record highs, and has a bright future. The US shows no signs of creating a new, sixth-generation exportable fighter. Without a US alternative, and with the F-35 aging, GCAP will have respectable export opportunities. Since the F-35 has turned into a major export engine for the US defense industry – as much an industrial policy as a defense program – the US needs to think about GCAP implications, and possible responses. For now, the US is supportive: last night’s announcement was accompanied by a DoD statement backing GCAP. That might be the first time the US backed a new defense program not directly involving the US.
Also, consider the international industry landscape. GCAP incorporates Leonardo. We don’t know about Saab – Sweden was in Tempest, but it’s not mentioned in this new announcement. It will probably join too. It’s a safe bet that Russia won’t be a serious defense exporter again for decades, if ever. China will be a significant fighter producer, but as I’ve written, that means nothing when potential export customers don’t like them. South Korea is an emerging producer, but the KF-21 is in a different price and generational segment than the GCAP. So, as the UK has often discovered in its history, the only real enemy is France. More on them in a moment.
5. Global Combat Aircraft Leadership. The Sixth-generation fighter aircraft landscape is just emerging. GCAP stakes out a pole position here. Again, the US is absent, and even supportive. Meanwhile FCAS, created as a Franco-German fighter, will likely see Germany leave, since the idea of a Franco-German fighter is A380-level stupid. FCAS instead, will become a Franco-French collaborative program. It will be successful, but France can’t match a UK-Japan-Italy alliance in terms of economics, technology, or diplomatic backing, especially if the US keeps supporting it.
6. Brexit Redemption. From the outside, Brexit looks like one of the bigger self-inflicted national wounds of the century. But the UK Tory narrative has been that Brexit allows for a Global Britain, one that can establish new trade and security relationships with countries outside the EU. GCAP looks like one of the few tangible examples of that.
7. Global Content. This new jet won’t be a European plane that keeps all subcontracts and technologies in the EU. US contractors, and other companies, might be free to compete for positions on this jet, creating a plane that embodies best-in-breed technologies. That Pentagon statement of support implies opportunities for US OEMs, and ITAR might not be a major problem. We might be looking at the first non-US global combat aircraft.
8. Pacific Security Implications. GCAP implies stronger UK-Japan security ties, and European-Japan security ties. Since NATO needs to focus on the Pacific for its future relevance (Russia likely won’t matter in a year), this matters, in the same way that the AUKUS agreement promotes Western ties with Pacific allies too.
A lot can happen between now and 2035. Program execution and funding are major risks. Both the UK and Japan are planning significant defense budget increases, but either could change course over the coming 15 years. It will be challenging to keep the two main partners happy with workshare, along with Italy, and, probably, Sweden, and perhaps Germany. There’s also the risk of a US policy reversal, and perhaps even a new-start US program resulting in a new exportable sixth gen mid-market fighter by the 2040s. But again, in a world of endless foolishness, GCAP stands out as a remarkably smart idea.
Yours, Until A Franco-North Korean Fighter Emerges,
Richard Aboulafia