Dear Fellow Attendees of What Was Possibly The Most Generic Air Show Ever,
Meh. That’s my reaction to Farnborough this year. At least the weather wasn’t apocalyptic, as in the last two FASs. Otherwise, the only way to justify a letter on the subject is with a rundown of ten things I saw and learned, with help from a few of my learned ADA colleagues:
1. GCAP/Tempest. BAE and co. unveiled a new, larger design (one third bigger than Eurofighter), which now looks like it has its own postal code. A monster delta wing speaks to range, payload, and Pacific operations. Every AvNerd at FAS geeked out about Britain’s aeronautical past, and made all kinds of comparisons, but the only one that matters is TSR.2. The last purely-UK fighter was tragically doomed for political reasons, and the arrival of the Keir Starmer government – and its upcoming strategy review – shadows over this jet (which, in turn, shadows over small cities). Japanese and Italian partnership – and perhaps Saudi involvement – will likely boost program survival odds. You can visit a TSR.2 prototype survivor, by the way, at Imperial War Museum/Duxford.
2. Production constraints. Only tourists were paying attention to orders at this show. The industry has 10,000+ jetliners to build. Instead, this was a show about production, and the investments needed to alleviate severe challenges. My colleague Kevin Michaels’ takeaway: “Supply chain and human resources have become strategic functions.” A supply chain executive told me investments underway would permit a significant output upturn in the back half of 2025; I’ll hold him to this at next year’s Le Bourget.
3. European defense. ADA’s Jonas Murby pointed to “continued uncertainty over how Europe will reach its targets for defense spending and domestic growth in weapons and equipment production,” pointing to the absence of a roadmap to get from 20% European sourcing today to 50% by 2030. If Europe wants to Trump-proof the alliance, it had better get going, and discussions on this topic at the show were mighty vague.
4. RISE. GE/Safran’s new engine development program continued to establish itself as the strongest next-generation jetliner propulsion concept, and perhaps the most interesting new product launch in our industry. Jonas noted strong supplier interest, a clear sign of market traction. Airbus is now eagerly requesting any kind of competing engine from Pratt and Rolls, since ceding market power to one engine prime is unpalatable for an airframer. Airbus is clearly thinking that propfans might be the future. But there are still big questions: (1) Will RISE be enough of a killer product to render anything launched in the next few years obsolete, or will GTF 2.0 or UltraFan be fully competitive? and (2) How long is the window before RISE’s realistic arrival? The answers to these are needed to answer this: If anyone wants to launch a new jetliner, do they need to wait for RISE?
5. Embraer. Everyone loves them, since airlines and lessors all want another (functioning) jetliner prime – the world’s airlines are in Rage Mode against Boeing. ADA’s Klaus Mueller opines that at the show “Embraer cemented their role as the likely Third Player.” But the company continues to deny, for now, any plans to launch a bigger jet. So, Atlas Shrugged. But at least the KC-390 is getting serious traction on the military transport market, and the company’s flying displays were quite impressive.
6. COMAC. This was the first show in over a decade where they seemed – how to put this gently? – irrelevant. The MA700, engine-less after the US and Canada pulled Pratt Canada’s export license, continues to be conspicuously absent from model displays, like a Politburo member airbrushed out of photos. Klaus pointed to COMAC’s “weak and vague announcements.” Also, the C919 looks like it might be as big a turkey as the ARJ21.
7. Sustainability, or lack thereof. Kevin points to “a sense that momentum for sustainable aviation is flagging. The mania for hydrogen as a medium-term solution passed. SAF and aircraft replacement are the only near-term levers for reducing emissions.” However, Klaus notes that at the show, “There was no attendance from anything for a possible SAF supply chain, or anything that would create a better SAF supply.”
8. JetZero. If Embraer isn’t going to do a bigger jet, and if COMAC stays useless, perhaps it’s up to JetZero to create a third player. My colleagues and I really like these guys. This raises one of the very biggest questions of the show, and indeed, of our time: if investors are really smart about allocating capital, why is JetZero operating out of a small meeting room while Boom occupies a ginormous front-row chalet? Meanwhile, the USAF wants to accelerate KC-Z, raising the question of whether JetZero will get more than the relatively paltry $235 million budgeted thus far. Lockheed Martin Skunk Works, of course, has big KC-Z plans of its own.
9. UAM/AAM/eVTOLs. Speaking of dubious allocation of capital, these things are still all over Farnborough. There are zero signs of either service entry (it’s always “next year in Dubai! Or China!”) or a badly needed herd-culling. Perhaps this perma-bubble will one day reach some kind of conclusion, but it’s hard to say when, after years of proliferating chalets and booth displays at air shows. Lilium displayed a full-size model and announced a big (if non-firm) Saudia order. Also, they’re noteworthy: all the other eVTOLs appear technically reasonable, but with highly risky market prospects. Lilium stands out to me as having reasonable market prospects but with extremely uncertain technology.
10. Collaborative Combat Aircraft, and their building blocks. There’s a belated realization that making CCAs useful depends on more than software and airframes – new engines are needed too. Since nobody knows how they will be launched and deployed, new, larger CCAs and engines might be necessary. GE announced a CCA engine development plan with Kratos. Rolls and ITP announced plans to work together too. Pratt & Whitney, Honeywell, Safran, and of course Williams remain less conspicuous here, but perhaps they already have what’s needed, or already have new projects in the works.
That was Farnborough, in less than two pages. The show was further overshadowed by the Boeing CEO announcement this week. The extremely welcome appointment of Kelly Ortberg as CEO shows that Boeing’s board can always be trusted to do the right thing, after they’ve exhausted all other possibilities.
Yours, ‘Til the USAF Gets Tempests Instead of NGAD,
Richard Aboulafia