:: Archives ::
This ia a comprehensive list of notes, articles and links on RichardAboulafia.com.| August 21, 2008 :: | August 2008 Letter - Dear Fellow Anti-Disruptive Technologists, The aviation business gets sleepy after Farnborough. Things are nice and quiet. Yet I woke up on July 29th to interesting news: Vern Raburn, CEO and founder of Eclipse Aviation, was ousted as a pre-condition for the company’s ne... [More] | |
| August 13, 2008 :: | TV Appearance On Mideast Jet Orders - Canada's DEXtv | |
| August 13, 2008 :: | Tankers: Back To Square One - Aerospace America | |
| July 27, 2008 :: | July 2008 Letter - Dear Fellow Anglophone Aerophiles, Few cartoon characters match Wile E. Coyote for metaphors. The failed carnivore runs off cliffs or paddles over waterfalls, going straight into mid air until he realizes that there’s nothing beneath him, and he falls into so... [More] | |
| June 30, 2008 :: | Latest Tanker Comments - Flight International's Steve Trimble (The DEW Line blog) | |
| June 26, 2008 :: | June 2008 Letter - Dear Fellow Dismayees, Like any roller coaster ride, the tanker saga can make you queasy if you stay with it too long. Everyone involved in this ghastly affair is going to get queasier. The Government Accountability Office has sustained Boeing’s tanker contract protest, gu... [More] | |
| June 22, 2008 :: | Defense News TV Appearance - With Vago Muradian | |
| June 6, 2008 :: | Aviation Outlook Podcast - Benet Wilson's first Things With Wings Radio Show | |
| June 6, 2008 :: | Business Jets: The Rich Get Richer - Aerospace America | |
| May 24, 2008 :: | May 2008 Letter - Dear Fellow Technology Transfer Skeptics, Seeking hope in these troubled times? As usual, look no further than Australia. The Australian military, whose procurement practices are among the most professional and transparent in the world, has taken a major step. They h... [More] | |
| May 19, 2008 :: | Recent VLJ comments - In Flight International | |
| May 10, 2008 :: | April 2008 Letter - Dear Fellow Problem Avoiders, A time machine. A perpetual motion device. A talking camel. Despite the best efforts of brilliant inventors, many great concepts have eluded mankind’s grasp. But the most elusive of all is the Somebody Else’s Problem field. This... [More] | |
| April 7, 2008 :: | The US Tactical Aircraft Crisis - Aerospace America | |
| March 13, 2008 :: | March 2008 Letter - Dear Fellow Shock Victims, Political talk shows are a dismal form of entertainment. Self-aggrandizing pundits yammering on ("Giuliani is clearly the man to beat") are a terrible cure for a Sunday morning hangover. Yet consider this: a few weeks before EADS/Northrop's surp... [More] | |
| February 25, 2008 :: | February 2008 Letter - Dear Fellow Aircraft Safari Lovers, There is one true test for the aviation enthusiast: propensity to spend $13,000 on a flight in an English Electric Lightning. I have faced this test and have been found wanting. Even if I had the discretionary cash, my wife me... [More] | |
| February 13, 2008 :: | Aircraft Primes: Still An Elite Club - Aerospace America | |
| December 31, 2007 :: | January 2008 Letter - Dear Fellow Turbine Aficionados, As we enter the new year, let’s reflect on a supremely successful, world altering technology. It continues to transform aviation markets. Airlines love it for lowering their fuel bills. Private pilots love its value for money and handlin... [More] | |
| December 22, 2007 :: | My Gerson Lehrman Group home page - GLG provides expertise for financial services firms. | |
| December 6, 2007 :: | Dollargoating - Wall Street Journal op/ed - subscription required | |
| December 3, 2007 :: | December 2007 Letter - Dear Fellow Carbon Footprinters, As an aircraft forecaster, I like things simple. Expensive fuel = high ticket prices = fewer passengers. Airlines get squeezed between slack demand and higher fuel-related operating costs. Airlines buy fewer jets. Bad. All... [More] | |
| November 18, 2007 :: | Embraer Eyes Options For Growth - Aerospace America | |
| November 5, 2007 :: | November 2007 Letter - Dear Fellow Inter-Site Factory Travelers, There are many great forums to debate globalization. Davos, Switzerland. The United Nations. Snohomish County. That’s right. Snohomish. It’s near Canada. It’s also the home of Boeing’s widebody factories in Everet... [More] | |
| October 17, 2007 :: | October 2007 Letter - Dear Fellow Aircraft Mourners, I get sad when planes start to die. I fear that’s what’s happening to Sino-Swearingen’s SJ30. Just last year Teal’s Corporate Strategy Guy Phil Finnegan and I trundled out to Martinsburg, WV in Phil’s new car. The prospect of... [More] | |
| September 19, 2007 :: | September 2007 Letter - Dear Fellow Aviation Folly Watchers, Remember Indonesia’s IPTN? It was a repulsive cash-devouring horror, stupidly wrapped in a national flag. It represented a value-obliterating idea—creating indigenous aircraft as part of a nation’s development roadmap. Also,... [More] | |
| September 15, 2007 :: | Civil Helicopters Finally Take Off - Aerospace America | |
| August 20, 2007 :: | August 2007 Letter - Dear Fellow Aircraft Anthropologists, Best part of any vacation: local aviation content (and an indulgent wife). Most countries have some kind of aviation legacy, a story told through museums, monuments or planes. This summer I found myself in Istanbul for a week.... [More] | |
| July 31, 2007 :: | July 2007 Letter - Dear Fellow Ethnic Food Fans, Which is a more widespread idea, fear of foreigners, or love of foreigners? I did some scientific in-depth research that produced sad results. Google “xenophobia” and you get exactly 3.6 million hits; Google the less well known <... [More] | |
| July 3, 2007 :: | June 2007 Letter - Dear Fellow Air Show Wanderers, Just back from the best Le Bourget ever. The industry has never seen such strong demand. All markets—jetliners, business jets, combat aircraft, rotorcraft, the aftermarket, etc.—are doing exceptionally well, hitting record high... [More] | |
| July 1, 2007 :: | Business Jet Sales Hit New Heights - Aerospace America | |
| June 7, 2007 :: | China's Jet "Dream" - Wall Street Journal op/ed - subscription required | |
| May 21, 2007 :: | May 2007 Letter - Dear Fellow Old School Travelers, Planning a flight? If you aren’t corporate top brass, very rich, or a guest on any of their business jets, here’s what to expect: You will enter a tube with one or two aisles. Your seating area will measure two by three feet. You wil... [More] | |
| May 11, 2007 :: | Airbus Reinvents To Reinvest - Aerospace America | |
| April 18, 2007 :: | April 2007 Letter - Dear Fellow Bubble Watchers, What’s the strangest thing in your house? For me it’s an easy answer—a Steinway baby grand piano. I pass it every night on my way upstairs and ask “how long have we had this piano?” Oh yeah, I remember, my wife won it back in 199... [More] | |
| March 20, 2007 :: | March 2007 Letter - Dear Fellow Irony Miners, What is Irony? A movie character played by Winona Ryder said she couldn’t define it, but she knew it when she saw it. She was right. Just look at Airbus and Europe: Irony 1: Don Rumsfeld shows why the US is a great country. <... [More] | |
| February 28, 2007 :: | February 2007 Letter - Dear Fellow Traffickers, Smuggling is one of the great pleasures in life. Transporting contraband across borders brings great rewards—the thrilling danger of getting caught, and of course the enjoyment of consuming the smuggled good. For yea... [More] | |
| February 27, 2007 :: | Keeping The Army Aloft - Aerospace America | |
| February 19, 2007 :: | Geroge Hamlin's site - A fellow aviation analyst who also takes great airplane photos | |
| January 31, 2007 :: | January 2007 Letter - Estimado Compañero en la Lucha por la Aviación, “Super Mystères! Look honey, Super Mystères!” I yelped as we taxied on the San Pedro Sula runway in Honduras. For some inexplicable reason my wife appeared disinterested. She gave me an I’m-happy-for-you-dear... [More] | |
| January 20, 2007 :: | Winners And Losers In The Great Aircraft Boom - Aerospace America | |
| December 21, 2006 :: | December 2006 Letter - Dear Fellow Avio-Bibliophiles, I haven’t written a book review since fourth grade (I think the last one I reviewed involved space aliens). It’s time I returned to this lost prose form; John Newhouse’s Boeing Versus Airbus (Knopf, 2007) is about to arrive.... [More] | |
| December 15, 2006 :: | My Guns-to-Caviar Index - Written up by Dan Gross on Slate | |
| November 30, 2006 :: | November 2006 Letter - Dear Fellow Frequent Voters, People like political change. They get the promise of a fresh start, a chance to try new approaches, and Lord knows, as The Who said, we Won’t Get Fooled Again. And here in DC, there’s lots of change ahoy, and absolutely no in... [More] | |
| October 11, 2006 :: | Airbus Alchemy - Wall Street Journal op/ed - subscription required | |
| October 10, 2006 :: | October 2006 Letter - Dear Fellow Private Sector Standard Bearers, Just back from France with Part 27 of my comprehensive fact-finding project: “Who has the dumbest politicians, the US or France?” I’m pleased to report a winner: Thierry Breton, France’s Finance/Industry/Economy Minist... [More] | |
| October 7, 2006 :: | International Herald Tribune profile - All about me | |
| October 1, 2006 :: | Regionals Move Forward...To 1995 - Aerospace America | |
| September 21, 2006 :: | September 2006 Letter - Dear Fellow Sudden Car Industry Watchers, Job interviews bring out goofy things in people. You hear weird, self-important nonsense, like “I earned a black belt in Total Project Transformation Management.” or “I saved my company $10,000 in gardening bills by encouragin... [More] | |
| September 12, 2006 :: | Morgan Stanley A380 Debate and Analysis - My half takes the downside view | |
| August 10, 2006 :: | Japan's Military Aircraft Slump - Aerospace America | |
| July 24, 2006 :: | August 2006 Letter - Dear Fellow Farnborough Endurers, Hot tarmac. Miserable sweat soaked wool suit. Blazing sun. Futile air conditioning. Laughable transportation. If you aren’t in someone’s chalet, tepid ice-free drinks cost £4 ($137.50). Yep, it’s Farnborough. All I could think abo... [More] | |
| July 13, 2006 :: | Aviation Today Podcast - On the state of the aviation manufacturing industry | |
| July 11, 2006 :: | July 2006 Letter - Dear Fellow Enthusiastic Border Overflyers, What’s the least important part of your job? For 17 years I’ve had an easy answer: Teal’s annual Eurocopter BK.117/EC 145 report. This ordinary looking helicopter represents .001% of the aggregate economic value of ... [More] | |
| July 9, 2006 :: | AEI Boeing/Airbus WTO Panel, Version 2.0 - With link to my presentation, and to video of the event | |
| June 21, 2006 :: | June 2006 Letter - Dear Fellow Stunned Observers, Mapping failure in our industry is easy. Aircraft fail due to technical reasons or market reasons or both. Technical failures include the A-12 and the Comet 1 jetliner. Market failures include the ... [More] | |
| June 20, 2006 :: | VOA Appearance - About Airbus | |
| June 20, 2006 :: | The Airbus Debacle - Wall Street Journal op/ed - subscription required | |
| June 9, 2006 :: | Airbus Faces Tough Midmarket Choices - Aerospace America | |
| May 30, 2006 :: | May 2006 Letter - Dear Fellow Zoo Fans, How long does your typical European Brown Bear live? Every two years since 1998 my colleagues and I have visited Maxi, Schnute, and Tilo, the official Berlin bears residing between our hotel and ILA, the slightly under appreciated ... [More] | |
| May 6, 2006 :: | Comments to NPR's All Things Considered - On airlines and fuel | |
| April 4, 2006 :: | April 2006 Letter - Dear Fellow Airplane Development Second-Guessers, Selling things for a living is hard work. You’re only as good as your last hit. And sometimes second best doesn’t get you much. It’s like the sales contest in Mamet’s Glengarry Glen Ross: “As you all know, fi... [More] | |
| April 1, 2006 :: | The High Cost Business Of Building Jets - Aerospace America | |
| March 13, 2006 :: | March 2006 Letter - Dear Fellow Checker Cab Flyers, Permit me to ask you a personal question: Do you tip your air taxi driver? My colleague Mark argues that a well-placed C-note ensures great service, particularly if golf clubs are involved. My colleague Steve says it’s covered in the... [More] | |
| March 3, 2006 :: | February 2006 Letter - Dear Fellow Wary Globalizers, Borders are disappearing in the aerospace industry. But despite globalization, companies on both sides of the Atlantic have serious differences of perception. Consider reactions to the recent Russian decision to merge all aerospace assets ... [More] | |
| February 28, 2006 :: | 50-Seat RJ Market Implodes - Aerospace America | |
| February 20, 2006 :: | Editorial on China Aerospace In Aviation Week & Space Technology - My article is the second half | |
| January 31, 2006 :: | Comments to Canada's Report On Business TV about the demise of the CSeries - Click the January 31 program | |
| January 24, 2006 :: | January 2006 Letter - Dear Fellow Hotel Residents, I’ve got nothing. Let me state that up-front. I took a vacation in Vietnam, and was hoping to write a few pages on the local aerospace market as I did last year for India. Instead I’ve got nothing. No aerospace companies consid... [More] | |
| December 21, 2005 :: | December 2005 Letter - Dear Fellow China Watchers, A lot of bad things happened to Airbus this year. The A380 delays, the A350’s slow start, and worst of all, the A340’s downward spiral. But this is the time of year for giving thanks. It’s important for everyone to remem... [More] | |
| November 30, 2005 :: | November 2005 Letter - Dear Fellow Airplane Mourners, Check out the chalk outlines on the tarmac. Two dead airplanes: Bombardier’s CRJ-200 and Embraer’s ERJ 135/145. Didn’t see that coming. Airplane deaths are always tragic; forensic pathology is the worst part of the av... [More] | |
| November 1, 2005 :: | Military Transport Looks For A Lift - Aerospace America | |
| October 17, 2005 :: | October 2005 Letter - Dear Fellow Alphabet Soup Consumers, Do letters hurt? I didn’t used to think so. But sometime around 1990 McDonnell Douglas, whose leadership could charitably be termed “in need of adult supervision,” implemented a management philosophy known as TQM. As im... [More] | |
| October 4, 2005 :: | Comments to Canada's Report On Business TV about CSeries - Click the October 4 program--my segment starts about halfway through the show | |
| September 9, 2005 :: | September 2005 Letter - Dear Fellow Wage Slaves, Dry dog food. I hope it’s tasty. Like a lot of Americans, my retirement plans revolve around cultivating a taste for the stuff. I spent the ‘90s enthusiastically buying dot.com stocks. Having learned nothing about economic bubble... [More] | |
| September 8, 2005 :: | Canada Faces CSeries Crisis - Aerospace America | |
| August 1, 2005 :: | August 2005 Letter - Dear Fellow Armchair Industrial Strategists, Feeling old? Me too. Here’s consolation. You understand market cyclicality if you live through enough cycles. At 42, I’m old enough to see several booms and busts, in both the defense and commercial markets. But there’s... [More] | |
| July 4, 2005 :: | July 2005 Letter - Dear Fellow Crypto-Anti-Xenophobes, Dislike Foreigners? Sadly, you’re not alone. Many people hate outsiders. Many outsiders hate them back. Ironically, it’s the biggest border-transcending theme that humanity has in common: hatred of other people. ... [More] | |
| July 1, 2005 :: | Jetliners Face A Spotty Market Recovery - Aerospace America | |
| June 30, 2005 :: | Comments to Bloomberg on James McNerney's Appointment - Teal's Aboulafia Discusses Boeing's Choice of McNerney as Chief 2005-06-30 17:02 (New York) By Subrata N. Chakravarty June 30 (Bloomberg) -- Richard Aboulafia, vice president of the Teal Group, discuses today's announcemen... [More] | |
| June 25, 2005 :: | Industry Globalization Study - Link to Deep Integration: How Transatlantic Markets are Leading Globalization, published by the Center for European Policy Studies and Johns Hopkins University Center for Transatlantic Relations. Includes my chapter on the jetliner industry. | |
| May 30, 2005 :: | June 2005 Letter - Dear Fellow Nostalgicians, Launching a plane today is tough. You have to carefully explain your business case to shareholders, debt-raters, and industry partners. But before privatization, de-regulation, and liberalization, launching a plane was charmi... [More] | |
| May 24, 2005 :: | Leeham Company - Scott Hamilton's website--a very useful resource | |
| May 3, 2005 :: | May 2005 Letter - Dear Fellow Rememberers Of Things Past, Six AM, Plainview, Long Island, New York. I wake with a bloodcurdling scream, as is my custom whilst visiting my ancestral prefab postwar subdivision home. Whenever I stay here I’m visited by countless regrets, the endless lita... [More] | |
| May 1, 2005 :: | Business Jet Free-fall Ends - Aerospace America | |
| April 5, 2005 :: | April 2005 Letter - Dear Fellow CEOs-In-Training, Sex. Harrry Stonecipher. Didn’t think I’d ever write those words together in the same paragraph. Nope. NoSiree Bob. And neither did the rest of the world. Just for grins, I googled “Sex+Stonecipher” and got 16,800 hits, of which 16,100... [More] | |
| March 16, 2005 :: | AEI Boeing/Airbus WTO Panel - With link to my presentation | |
| March 3, 2005 :: | March 2005 Letter - Dear Fellow Well-Intentioned Globalists, What makes analysts happy? Two dots. You can connect them and point to a trend. It still amazes me that I get paid to stand in front of people with a cheap laser pointer, drawing a line and pointing to a trend. The Lockheed ... [More] | |
| March 1, 2005 :: | Solid Growth In The Fighter Market - Aerospace America | |
| January 27, 2005 :: | February 2005 Letter - Dear Fellow Long-Distance Travelers, In travel, it’s the little things you notice. Example. In Indian airports, toilet paper is stamped “Airport.” That’s a smart anti-theft deterrent, I thought. Then I realized the paper looked as though it ... [More] | |
| January 19, 2005 :: | Boeing's WTO complaint: The last battle? - Aerospace America | |
| December 13, 2004 :: | January 2005 Letter - Dear Fellow Fragmented Route Travelers, Onceuponatime, my mother told me a great story. A beggar visited a rich man, claiming he could make soup from rocks. Intrigued by the idea of feeding his peasants for free, the rich person let the vagabond demonstrat... [More] | |
| November 22, 2004 :: | December 2004 Letter - Dear Fellow Scandal Watchers, There are few greater guilty pleasures in life than reading other people’s mail. And thanks to Senator John McCain, for whom Christmas came early this year, we all get to share this experience. After the resignations of Air Force Se... [More] | |
| November 11, 2004 :: | Op/Ed on WTO Jetliner Issues - Financial Times; Subscription required | |
| October 25, 2004 :: | November 2004 Letter - Dear Fellow Trade War Spectators, Talk about obligation. I wish I could write this letter about anything except the Boeing/Airbus trade complaint, but it’s too big to ignore. Since everyone else is writing about it, I’m just a cog in a big Washington-based machi... [More] | |
| October 1, 2004 :: | October 2004 Letter - Dear Fellow Aerophiles, Avoiding culture in Venice is tough. Masterpieces of art and architecture are everywhere. It’s a living museum. As a dedicated ignoramus, however, I was determined to succeed. There was no aerospace work to do, so I paid a visit to ... [More] | |
| October 1, 2004 :: | Can The Military Transport Market Grow? - Aerospace America | |
| August 25, 2004 :: | September 2004 Letter - Dear Fellow Armchair Strategists, Fifty years ago, the French military decided to deal with their persistent Viet Minh insurgency. Reasoning that a climactic battle would finally win the war, in November 1953 they deployed a large force in a Vietnamese valley—Dien ... [More] | |
| August 3, 2004 :: | Uncertainties Lurk In Jetliner Market - Aerospace America | |
| July 29, 2004 :: | August 2004 Letter - Dear Fellow Throwaway Society Members, TV ads change your life. We were recently cleaning house, and whenever I got sentimental about giving old stuff away, my wife reminded me of that Ikea lamp commercial. The images are from the lamp’s point of view, aban... [More] | |
| July 1, 2004 :: | July 2004 Letter - Dear Fellow Paranoiacs, I Am Alive and You Are Dead is the wonderfully titled new biography of Philip K. Dick, the visionary science fiction writer whose dark, paranoid work inspired such crazed epics as Blade Runner, Minority Report, Total Recall, and... [More] | |
| June 16, 2004 :: | Diane Rehm Show appearance - Panel on the airline industry, Wednesday, June 9 | |
| June 16, 2004 :: | Comments to NPR's All Things Considered - On Independence Air | |
| June 3, 2004 :: | Life After Comanche - Aerospace America | |
| May 25, 2004 :: | June 2004 Letter - Dear Fellow Restaurant Meal Deducters, We live in a perfect world. People who are both aviation experts (me, purportedly) and gluttons (me, definitely) get to visit the two world jetliner capitals, and both happen to offer world-class dining in convenient pro... [More] | |
| April 23, 2004 :: | May 2004 Letter - Dear Fellow Kurt Vonnegut Wannabes, Know any frustrated novelists? You know the type—they dream of writing the Great American Novel, the next Catch-22, something richly textured yet darkly comic. Then, like me, they stop dreaming and go back to their wage-slav... [More] | |
| April 9, 2004 :: | April 2004 Letter - Dear Fellow Travelers, Canada. The very word strikes casual interest and mild curiosity. But how different are our Northern pals? I decided to find out with an in-depth, 48-hour tour of two geographically convenient cities, Montreal and Toronto. Sure, there are the... [More] | |
| April 1, 2004 :: | Airbus and the Dreamliner - Aerospace America | |
| March 17, 2004 :: | Commercial Transport Market Still in Rough Shape - Aviation Week & Space Technology: 2004 Sourcebook | |
| March 1, 2004 :: | Rotorcraft Market Politicized by European and American Nationalism - Aviation Week & Space Technology: 2004 Sourcebook | |
| March 1, 2004 :: | Bizjets Search for Optimism - Aviation Week & Space Technology: 2004 Sourcebook | |
| March 1, 2004 :: | Fighter Makers Reassess Options - Avaition Week & Space Technology: 2004 Sourcebook | |
| March 1, 2004 :: | Military Transport Market Grows - Aviation Week & Space Technology: 2004 Sourcebook | |
| March 1, 2004 :: | Future of U.S. Bomber Force Uncertain - Aviation Week & Space Technology: 2004 Sourcebook | |
| February 25, 2004 :: | March 2004 Letter - Dear Fellow Helicopter Watchers (Version 2.0), Again with the helicopters. It’s a busy time for the rotary winged red-haired stepchildren of the aerospace industry. The only thing that could eclipse the endless VXX debate was a Comanche cancellation. And that’s wha... [More] | |
| February 16, 2004 :: | February 2004 Letter - Dear Fellow Helicopter Watchers, Funny how just one voice mail can transform the helicopter market. Consider, f’rinstance, this one: George, hi, it’s Tony. Remember all we did for you in Iraq? We sent those troops with the funny hats that made you giggle, plu... [More] | |
| February 1, 2004 :: | Requiem For A Narrowbody - Aerospace America | |
| January 15, 2004 :: | January 2004 letter - Dear Frequent Readers, Frequent readers of this column might recall that I promised two letters to commemorate the 100th anniversary of powered, inhabited flight. This month: belated idealism, or as close as I can get to it. Here’s my list of the best aspects of aviatio... [More] | |
| December 4, 2003 :: | December 2003 letter - Dear Fellow House Loungers, Thanksgiving’s over, guests have left, and I’m enjoying a long weekend in the house, wearing pajamas, not shaving, and drinking leftover gravy straight from Tupperware. Totally relaxed in my slovenliness, I enjoy a nice breakfast beer and wo... [More] | |
| November 3, 2003 :: | November 2003 Letter - Dear Fellow Franklin Mint “Anniversary of Flight” Commemorative Plate Collectors, Yeah, it’s that time of the century again—time to commemorate the centennial of flight. Lately, I’ve gotten calls from journalists seeking advice on important milestones and highli... [More] | |
| November 1, 2003 :: | The end of the Saudi Aircraft market? - Aerospace America | |
| October 28, 2003 :: | DSCA Briefing - Briefing to DoD's Defense Security Cooperation Agency | |
| October 1, 2003 :: | October 2003 Letter - Dear Fellow Airplane Culture Vultures, When I first saw Attila, the Hungarian Aerospace Museum tour guide whose name I am not making up, I was scared. Blue lab coat, earnest, nervous expression—this was going to be a long, drawn out afternoon of darkness. “…And t... [More] | |
| September 25, 2003 :: | Comments to BBC about personal jets - IN BUSINESS JET PLANES Presenter: Peter Day TRANSMISSION 25th SEPT 2003 2030-2100 RADIO 4 THIS TRANSCRIPT IS ISSUED ON THE UNDERSTANDING THAT IT IS TAKEN FROM A LIVE PROGRAMME AS IT WAS BROADCAST. THE NATURE OF LI... [More] | |
| September 7, 2003 :: | September 2003 Letter - Dear Fellow Tanker Watchers, How about that Boeing 767 tanker deal, eh? Excessive finance fees. Improper e-mails. Hyper-intense lobbying. Yep, you might think this would make a good scandal. If, that is, you never had any contact with aerospace, economics, or b... [More] | |
| September 1, 2003 :: | A380 At The Halfway Point - Aerospace America | |
| August 13, 2003 :: | August 2003 Letter - Dear Fellow Industry Org Chart Inhabitants, Every day I open my e-mail, and it’s pretty much the same thing. Two or three angry clients, one or two angry PR types (more “disappointed” than “angry”), and a letter from a junior cabinet minister in a country I’ve never hear... [More] | |
| July 2, 2003 :: | July 2003 Letter - Dear Fellow Airplane Counters, I spent a week wandering through the Paris Air Show. Watched tumbleweeds blow through chalet alleys. Aimlessly talked about nothing over wine-soaked lunches while European fighters flew overhead, in futile competition with absent US planes. B... [More] | |
| July 1, 2003 :: | A400M: Out Of The Woods? - Aerospace America | |
| May 28, 2003 :: | June 2003 Letter - Dear Fellow Citizens Of The Aviation World, While growing up, my view of the world was shaped by Dr. Seuss. Books like Oh, The Places You’ll Go! told me the world was filled with people who were different, but friendly; happy Eskimos ice-fishing... [More] | |
| May 11, 2003 :: | Crisis Of Faith For Regional Jets - Aerospace America | |
| April 23, 2003 :: | CNN Newsnight Appearance - Talking about the air transport industry | |
| April 23, 2003 :: | May 2003 Newsletter - Dear Fellow Printed Matter Fans, What’s on my Oh-My-God-I’m-Crammed-Into-A-Middle-Seat-In-The-Back-Of-A-757-What-Do-I-Do reading list? Well, most recently I breezed through the short, rewarding, and slim (fits into the three inches between your knees and the next... [More] | |
| April 14, 2003 :: | April 2003 Newsletter - Dear Fellow Weapons Catalog Readers, Like good portrait art? If yes, then I suggest you avoid BAE’s Warton fighter facility. Overdone portraits of the Saudi royal family are on prominent display there, complete with ultra-flattering nameplates. For some reason,... [More] | |
| March 24, 2003 :: | March 2003 Newsletter - Dear Fellow Airport Lounge Enthusiasts, Seven AM, Narita Airport, ANA Business Lounge. Wandering around, feeling like a piece of unclaimed baggage at the luggage carousel, I notice a funny looking machine on the refreshments counter. It’s got all kinds of weird... [More] | |
| March 20, 2003 :: | Fast Becomes Cheap - Aerospace America | |
| March 14, 2003 :: | Comments to Bloomberg about Jean-Luc Lagardere - Teal's Aboulafia Comments on Jean-Luc Lagardere's Industry Role 2003-03-14 08:21 (New York) Washington, March 14 (Bloomberg) -- Following are comments from Richard Aboulafia, vice president at Fairfax, Virginia-based ... [More] | |
| February 12, 2003 :: | February 2003 Newsletter - Dear Fellow Forensics Fans, One of the least charming aspects of life in Washington is that everyone’s a self-proclaimed foreign policy expert. From the time you get some meaningless degree (both of mine are completely “liberal arts”) to the time you land some job ... [More] | |
| January 29, 2003 :: | January 2003 Newsletter - Dear Fellow Cross-Border Shoppers, Just back from an enjoyable long vacation in Mexico, a country that offers zero aerospace news that I can read. The closest I came was a local comic strip called Condorito. Alas, the sanguine little condor was unable to help me in ... [More] | |
| January 21, 2003 :: | Grand Theft Aero - Aerospace America | |
| January 19, 2003 :: | U.S. Offerings Dominate Military Transport Markets - Aviation Week & Space Technology: 2003 Sourcebook | |
| January 19, 2003 :: | Doubts Surround Bomber's Future - Aviation Week & Space Technology: 2003 Sourcebook | |
| January 19, 2003 :: | Transports: Tough Market, Intense Competition - Aviation Week & Space Technology: 2003 Sourcebook | |
| January 19, 2003 :: | F-35's Potential Looms Over Global Fighter Market - Aviation Week & Space Technology: 2003 Sourcebook | |
| January 19, 2003 :: | Rotorcraft: A Tale Of Two Markets - Aviation Week & Space Technology: 2003 Sourcebook | |
| January 19, 2003 :: | Trainer Market Still Struggling - Aviation Week & Space Technology: 2003 Sourcebook | |
| January 19, 2003 :: | BizJets Survey New Terrain - Aviation Week & Space Technology: 2003 Sourcebook | |
| December 19, 2002 :: | December 2002 Newsletter - Dear Fellow Movie Fans, As an aviation enthusiast, it’s hard to not be amused by the plot of Die Hard II. Dulles Airport has been taken over by an all-star team of international terrorists. Unless our demands are met, we will force your helpless jetliners to cir... [More] | |
| November 15, 2002 :: | November 2002 Newsletter - Dear Fellow Aluminum Tube Inhabitants, Seen the new McDonald’s ad? They’ve got Donald Trump, praising the business acumen of an unseen pal, later revealed to be none other than Grimace, the long-forgotten McDonaldland character. “Together, Grimace, we could own thi... [More] | |
| October 8, 2002 :: | Airbus and Boeing Race to the Bottom - Aerospace America | |
| September 16, 2002 :: | October 2002 Newsletter - Dear Level Playing Field Players, One of the great pleasures of living in downtown Washington is the protests. Rather than just watch them on TV, I occasionally get to see them up close on my way to work. And as this is written, I gather there is yet another anti-WT... [More] | |
| August 22, 2002 :: | September 2002 Newsletter - Dear Fellow Cheap Seat Occupants, Ever see The French Connection? Well, if Hollywood has taught me anything, it’s that heroin addiction is something to avoid. It seems addicts need more and more heroin to feel good again. They get dependent, and it ultimately dest... [More] | |
| August 12, 2002 :: | August 2002 Newsletter - Dear Fellow Farnborough Avoidees, There are many good places to watch the Farnborough Air Show. Bill, Teal’s Helmsman, likes the press center, where you can watch the full range of journalistic idiosyncrasies on display. Others prefer corporate hospitality chalets, w... [More] | |
| August 9, 2002 :: | Fractional Ownership and the Stalled Business Jet Market - Aerospace America | |
| August 1, 2002 :: | CNN Appearance - My July 2002 CNN air power comments | |
| July 15, 2002 :: | July 2002 Newsletter - Dear Fellow Conflict Watchers, The world is a scary place, and only getting scarier. You don’t need to be a hack sci-fi writer to envision the unpleasant future. Angry combatants will battle fiercely for scarce resources, showing no signs of compromise or mercy. Cultur... [More] | |
| June 13, 2002 :: | June 2002 Newsletter - Dear Fellow Party Crashers, Of all the parties thrown in this industry, Harry Stonecipher’s retirement was easily the most lavish. The idea of throwing a massive celebration on board a company 747 converted to a flying ballroom, circling the globe while various world ... [More] | |
| June 1, 2002 :: | Fairchild Dornier: Phoenix Into Ashes - Aerospace America | |
| June 1, 2002 :: | JSF article from The Atlantic with my comments - Jim Fallow's seminal piece on JSF/F-35 | |
| May 20, 2002 :: | May 2002 Newsletter - Dear Fellow Travelers, So it’s four AM, and I wake up totally disoriented, hit by jet lag, minibar scotch, and a strange hotel bed. Yeah, the same old traveling businessman’s scene—you might have experienced it. I turn on the light, and spot a clutch of brochures lying ... [More] | |
| April 10, 2002 :: | April 2002 Newsletter - Dear Fellow Laptop Haulers, Funny thing about our usually lovable industry. While cuddly on the outside, it’s really a monstrous, cash-sucking beast. If you are an investor, for $100 million you can dig yourself a hole. For $500 million you can dig yourself a consider... [More] | |
| April 1, 2002 :: | Maritime patrol market: Escaping the doldrums. - Aerospace America | |
| March 12, 2002 :: | March 2002 Newsletter - Dear Fellow Scheduled Air Service Victims, Like a lot of other busy aviation professionals, I frequently take time out from my busy executive-type day to stop, relax, and have a beer. Not just any beer—since my college days I’ve become something of a beer snob. I real... [More] | |
| March 8, 2002 :: | AviationNow - My articles from Aviation Week, and other McGraw-Hill aviation related publications | |
| March 7, 2002 :: | Teal Group - The official Teal Group web site | |
| March 1, 2002 :: | JSF Key to Future - Aviation Week & Space Technology: 2002 Sourcebook | |
| March 1, 2002 :: | Change on the Horizon For Military Transport Sector - Aviation Week & Space Technology: 2002 Sourcebook | |
| March 1, 2002 :: | Bombers Attract Renewed Interest - Aviation Week & Space Technology: 2002 Sourcebook | |
| March 1, 2002 :: | Business Jets Bolstered By Crisis and Opportunity - Aviation Week & Space Technology: 2002 Sourcebook | |
| March 1, 2002 :: | Bad Times Get Worse For Transport Makers - Aviation Week & Space Technology: 2002 Sourcebook | |
| March 1, 2002 :: | Rotorcraft Market Growth Continues - Aviation Week & Space Technology: 2002 Sourcebook | |
| March 1, 2002 :: | Trainer Market: Signs of Life - Aviation Week & Space Technology: 2002 Sourcebook | |
| February 11, 2002 :: | February 2002 Newsletter - Dear Fellow Eager Pentagon Budget Watchers, Many years ago, during the Anglo-German pre-War naval arms race, the British Government proposed a budget funding six new Dreadnought-class battleships (the “big ticket items” of the time). The Treasury protested that the... [More] | |
| February 1, 2002 :: | Jim Fallows' site - One of the best writers, increasingly focused on aviation. | |
| February 1, 2002 :: | World fighter market waits for JSF answers. - Aerospace America | |
| January 29, 2002 :: | Aerostrategy - A notable aviation management consulting group | |
| January 15, 2002 :: | Walsh Aviation site - John Walsh's consulting company, a frequent Teal collaborator | |
| January 12, 2002 :: | January 2002 Newsletter - Dear Fellow Observers Of The Aircraft Market Condition, Many times over the past years, clients have written, called, or e-mailed in order to inquire, politely, what I was thinking. Indeed, “what the hell were you thinking?” is a very common phrase that I seem to he... [More] | |
| January 8, 2002 :: | Aerospace America - Lots of my articles are available on this site | |
| January 2, 2002 :: | December 2001 Newsletter - Dear Fellow Combat Aircraft Shoppers, Last month I wrote about the impact of deflation on the airline/airliner industry. This month, I’d like to talk about a related phenomenon that affects all of us as we shop for combat aircraft at our local fighter dealership. F... [More] | |
| November 27, 2001 :: | November 2001 Newsletter - Dear Aircraft-Minded Shoppers, It’s that time of year again—time to go to the mall. You might remember my last report from the mall. I forget when it was, but suffice to say that things were grim. No one was buying anything, save the occasional lump of Pottery Barn... [More] | |
| November 18, 2001 :: | Australian Broadcasting comments-2 - More comments on the state of the industry | |
| November 15, 2001 :: | Australian Broadcasting comments-1 - Comments about the world air transport industry after the November 2001 AMR crash | |
| November 6, 2001 :: | October 2001 Newsletter - Dear Fellow Returnees To Normality, Let’s start this letter on a note of hope. As I write this, the Bush Administration has begun bombing Afghanistan. There could be a sustained campaign to wipe out terrorists, followed by a rebuilding of the country with aid. This ... [More] | |
| November 1, 2001 :: | Airbus vs. Boeing: Year four. - Aerospace America | |
| September 18, 2001 :: | September 2001 Newsletter - Dear WMCAB Clients, Before the recent tragedy, I had written a mildly entertaining review of fighter industry consolidation, based on the recent A-12 lawsuit decision. Sadly, that monthly letter will have to wait. The world has changed. I hope you, like me, were f... [More] | |
| September 1, 2001 :: | Trainers face diminished expectations. - Aerospace America | |
| August 20, 2001 :: | August 2001 Newsletter - Dear Fellow Aircraft Observers, The big news of the month is the Defense Acquisition Board’s decision to approve LRIP of the first ten F-22s. This important step effectively guarantees the aircraft’s future, transitioning it from a research program (easy kill) to a p... [More] | |
| August 6, 2001 :: | July 2001 Newsletter - Dear Proud Members Of The Defense Industrial Base, Last month my letter looked at Europe. Well, since then I’ve been stuck in the malarial swamp of Washington, DC, so it’s time to turn my attentions closer to home. This is just as well—there’s plenty of material. The F... [More] | |
| July 1, 2001 :: | The business case for higher speed. - Aerospace America | |
| June 27, 2001 :: | June 2001 Newsletter - Dear Fellow Observers Of The Human Condition, Are people getting stupider? That’s the question that occupied my mind during this year’s Paris Air Show, from which I have just returned. Permit me to present the evidence for this depressing trend: First, there... [More] | |
| May 23, 2001 :: | May 2001 Newsletter - Dear Fellow Aircraft Reality TV Advocates, Onceuponatime, I spent a few years studying war in graduate school (see my upcoming memoirs, Volume VII: The Years Without Light). It was not a completely fruitless experience, and, now that you asked, I concentrated on the int... [More] | |
| May 1, 2001 :: | Airborne Early Warning: An Affordable Necessity? - Aerospace America | |
| April 11, 2001 :: | April 2001 Newsletter - Dear Future One-Sixteenth Bizjet Time Share Owners, Spending my happiest moments, as always, staring at spreadsheets. I’ve been reviewing the business jet numbers (new overview next month—let me know if you want an advance copy) when I suddenly came to a shocking conc... [More] | |
| April 3, 2001 :: | March 2001 Newsletter - Dear Soon-To-Be Trans-Sonic Clients, Greetings! Let’s talk about jetliners this month. Specifically, what does Boeing’s new line of semi-trans-sonic jets mean? Project Yellowstone, The TwentySomethings, The Sonic (PT?) Cruiser, whatever the nom du jour is, the proposa... [More] | |
| April 3, 2001 :: | Comments to Bloomberg on Sonic Cruiser - Boeing's Fast Jet May Be `Artificial, Calculated,' Says Analyst 2001-04-03 13:40 (New York) Washington, April 3 (Bloomberg) -- Boeing Co.'s proposed fast jet may be an ``artificial and calculated attempt'' to hurt sales of Airbus I... [More] | |
| March 21, 2001 :: | CBS Comments - About the 747, and its future prospects | |
| March 19, 2001 :: | February 2001 Newsletter - Dear Patient Clients, Well, let’s face it—the February date above is a barefaced lie. Please excuse the late supplement. What we lack in timeliness, we hope to make up for with…oh, I don’t know what. But at least this supplement does have one somewhat notable repor... [More] | |
| March 1, 2001 :: | Rethinking US Air power - Aerospace America | |
| January 22, 2001 :: | January 2001 Newsletter - Dear Fellow Old Economy Metal Benders, Happy New Year, and (doesn’t it get irritating?) Happy New Millennium! As tradition demands, the first supplement of the year includes our annual macro overview of the industry, the World Aircraft Overview. If you want one e-ma... [More] | |
| December 20, 2000 :: | December 2000 Newsletter - Dear Fellow Y2K+1 Survivors, Holiday Greetings! This supplement contains updates of a variety of exciting Christmas-spirit war machines. The F/A-18 and F-14 reports haven’t changed much; although our long-term outlook for the Hornet has been boosted by our new nega... [More] | |
| November 13, 2000 :: | November 2000 Newsletter - Dear Friendly Clients, In last month’s letter, I threatened to write about the impact of General Electric’s proposed acquisition of Honeywell on the aircraft business. Well, here goes. It’s a good thing. That’s it. Next topic. Okay, seriously, this merge... [More] | |
| November 3, 2000 :: | Comments to Bloomberg on Defense Privatization - Defense Asset Buyers Lured With Dubious Promises, Analyst Says Paris, Nov. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Governments trying to sell stakes in state-owned weapons companies frequently lure potential industrial investors with procurement promi... [More] | |
| November 1, 2000 :: | October 2000 Newsletter - Dear Fellow Number Crunchers, The GE/Honeywell merger is dominating news. Will it go ahead? What will the impact be on aircraft markets and financing? How will this affect the balance of power between primes and subcontractors? For answers to these questions, lo... [More] | |
| October 16, 2000 :: | September 2000 Newsletter - Dear Future Very Large Aircraft Inhabitants, This month’s letter was going to be about aerospace privatization rip-offs. But events have obviously intervened, and now I get to write about current events—Singapore has ordered 10 firm and 15 option A3XXs. Arguably... [More] | |
| October 1, 2000 :: | The Airbus Government Funding Question - Aerospace America | |
| September 14, 2000 :: | August 2000 Newsletter - Dear Fellow Value Added Synergizers, Greetings, and welcome to this supplement. August features another update of the commercial jet overview, reflecting that market’s surprising strength and durability. This impressive strength is especially seen in Airbus’s narro... [More] | |
| August 8, 2000 :: | July 2000 Newsletter - Dear Fellow Bemused Press Release Readers, The civil aircraft business could not be better. Production lines are going full speed, backlogs are fat, investor confidence is slowly but surely returning to the industry, and everyone is praising the longevity and durabilit... [More] | |
| July 7, 2000 :: | June 2000 Newsletter - Dear Fellow Aircraft Market Watchers, I just got back from Europe, and all I got my clients was some lousy information. So, what did I learn? Well, I learned the Europeans are serious. Seriously serious. EADS looks like an effective and rational organization... [More] | |
| June 5, 2000 :: | May 2000 Newsletter - Dear Fellow Aircraft Industry Clockwatchers, Seems like the months just fly by, don’t they? Matter of fact, seems like just yesterday Airbus was ready to launch the A350; that was Jean Pierson’s pet project, a new, large 600-seat beast that was all set to go…in 1992. We... [More] | |
| May 1, 2000 :: | April 2000 Newsletter - Dear Esteemed Readers, Topping last month’s news, Italy’s Alenia, which went from mustachioed spinster to highly-courted maiden, finally made its mind up and went with EADS. In addition to a joint combat aircraft venture with the German/French/Spanish firm, Alenia wil... [More] | |
| April 3, 2000 :: | March 2000 Newsletter - Dear Plane People, Greetings! What a great month for news. It seemed like one of those months where something aviation-related made the headlines every day, and none of it involved an unpleasant crash. This is good, because the only idea I have for this month’s letter... [More] | |
| March 28, 2000 :: | February 2000 Newsletter - Dear Aircraft Information Consumers, There are few things that make me happier than NEW DEFENSE BUDGET DAY! Yes, it’s that time of year—the FY2001 budget has arrived. I feel like a kid at holiday time, when the Sears Christmas catalogue would arrive, with color pho... [More] | |
| February 15, 2000 :: | January 2000 Newsletter - Dear Intrepid Readers, “Procurement holiday. What a sham.” I had just given a briefing analyzing the sluggish market for a certain military product. Even though I had referred to the procurement holiday in my presentation, I don’t think the author of the ... [More] | |
| December 1, 1999 :: | Rotor And Wing Outlook Article - My broad rotorcraft industry overview (see also the amusing editorial at the front of the magazine) | |
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© Richard Aboulafia 1997-2006, All rights reserved. |