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Richard Aboulafia is Vice President, Analysis at Teal Group. He manages consulting projects for clients in the commercial and military aircraft field, and has advised numerous aerospace companies. He also writes and edits Teal's World Military and Civil Aircraft Briefing, a forecasting tool covering over 135 aircraft programs and markets. Richard also writes publicly about the aviation field, with numerous articles in Aviation Week, Aerospace America, and other publications. Frequently cited as an aviation industry authority by trade and news publications, he has appeared on numerous television news programs and has spoken at a wide variety of conferences.
February 18, 2021 :: January 2021 Letter - Dear Fellow Market Disruption Observers,

One earnings call does not indicate the future. But Boeing’s fourth quarter call, on January 27th, implied a concerning level of complacency. CEO Dave Calhoun: “Broadly speaking and on balance across the portfolio, we like...   [More]

February 17, 2021 :: China’s Potemkin Aviation Can’t Survive Without Washington’s Help - Foreign Policy

February 17, 2021 :: Will Boeing Become The Next McDonnell Douglas? - Aviation Week & Space Technology

January 28, 2021 :: Boeing’s 777X Could Still Be A Success, Eventually -

January 5, 2021 :: December 2020 Letter - Dear Fellow Wintertime Shutdown Shut-Ins,

Good news: based on where things stand, I now forecast that we’ll get back to the 2019 air travel peak by late 2022 (commentary at Bad news: we’ve still got 4-5 months to go before travel re...   [More]

January 4, 2021 :: How The Purpose Of Air Shows Is Misinterpreted - Aviation Week & Space Technology

December 28, 2020 :: A Faster-Than-Expected Recovery In Air Travel And Other 2021 Predictions -

December 18, 2020 :: November 2020 Letter - Dear Fellow Regime Change Observers,

“Cancel Order!” President Trump’s nonsensical Air Force One tweet, a few weeks after the 2016 election, started the administration’s chaotic impact on aviation. For better or worse, the chaos just kept going (e...   [More]

December 2, 2020 :: Forget SpaceJet—Japanese Aerospace Still Has A Bright Future - Aviation Week & Space Technology

November 6, 2020 :: October 2020 Letter - Dear Fellow Econometric Metaphor Fans,

U? V? L? Reclining L? Nike Swoosh? Bathtub? The hot debate this year in world markets is, “Which symbol most resembles the duration of the Covid-19 downturn and the subsequent recovery?” Economics isn’t called the Dismal Science...   [More]

October 28, 2020 :: Why Airliner Manufacturing Could Go From Bad To Worse - Aviation Week & Space Technology

September 25, 2020 :: September 2020 Letter - Dear Fellow Prototypical Prototype Fans,

It’s a wonderful thing to welcome a brand new aircraft. This month, a new plane was revealed: Air Force acquisition chief Dr. Will Roper revealed the existence of a full-scale prototype, now in flight testing, developed ...   [More]

September 4, 2020 :: August 2020 Letter - Dear Fellow Once And Future World Travelers,

What were you thinking about before the pandemic? The BeforeTimes seem far away now, but just six months ago, before the masks went on and the flying stopped, I was thinking about middle market jetliners, and what Boein...   [More]

September 1, 2020 :: A Five-Part Strategy For Airbus - Aviation Week & Space Technology

August 10, 2020 :: July 2020 Letter - Dear Fellow Once And Future Air Show Attendees,

Here’s a phrase you can’t find with a Google search: “I miss the Farnborough Air Show.” You can’t Google it because nobody has ever written, said, or even thought that phrase. Farnborough is an obligation, and l...   [More]

July 9, 2020 :: June 2020 Letter - Dear Fellow Metaphorical Creature Taxonomists,

The Black Swan is massively overused as a cautionary creature. Instead, consider a better metaphor for our times: The Gray Rhino. Black Swans are unexpected and rare events, visible only in hindsight. Gray...   [More]

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© Richard Aboulafia 1997-2006, All rights reserved.
  ~  Last updated on January 08, 2006